Suan Dusit Poll Puts Thai Political Confidence at 3.63 as 23 Of 25 Measures Fall

BANGKOK — Thailand's political index fell to 3.63 out of 10 in August from 3.71 in July, with public ratings declining across 23 of the 25 areas measured by the Suan Dusit Poll.

The two that rose were opposition performance and public participation. They were also the two highest-scoring indicators in the survey, at 4.28 and 4.20 respectively. Every measure of government activity fell.

Suan Dusit University surveyed 2,107 people nationwide through online and field interviews between Aug. 25 and 28. Respondents rated 25 indicators of confidence in different aspects of Thai politics, each scored out of 10.

Where the floor is

The lowest-rated areas describe a fairly specific set of complaints.

Efforts to tackle drugs and influential figures ranked last at 3.00. Anti-corruption and transparency work came second from bottom at 3.18, and the price of goods third from bottom at 3.19. Tackling unemployment scored 3.20 and tackling poverty 3.27.

Read together, the bottom of the table is the cost of living and the integrity of the state — and nothing in the government's August performance moved either.

Pornpan Buathong, president of Suan Dusit Poll, attributed the overall decline to continuing economic and social problems, corruption, disasters and security concerns. The government had responded and introduced measures, she said, but clear results had yet to emerge in several areas.

The identical score

One detail carries more weight than the headline number.

The prime minister's performance and the government's performance both scored 3.57 — placing them joint 14th of 25, below political stability, below government disclosure of information, and below the overall performance of political parties.

Pinyo Khoowattanasenee, of Suan Dusit University's Bachelor of Laws programme, read the matching figures as a sign of weakening legal legitimacy for the executive, and the broad fall across indicators as evidence of a crisis of public confidence in Thailand's political institutions. He pointed particularly to the low ratings on corruption, transparency, and drugs and influential figures. That is his interpretation of the data rather than a finding of the survey.

He also argued that the relatively strong public-participation score cut both ways: people remain politically engaged, but that engagement is itself a warning.

Who registered

Anutin Charnvirakul was named the government-side politician with the most prominent role in August, on 31.94 percent, ahead of Yodchanan Wongsawat on 25.66 percent and Ekniti Nitithanprapas on 22.72 percent.

On the opposition side, Rukchanok Srinork led on 32.46 percent — a higher share than the prime minister recorded on his own side of the ledger — followed by Parit Wacharasindhu on 22.68 percent and People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut on 21.36 percent. Abhisit Vejjajiva took 12.80 percent and Sirikanya Tansakun 10.70 percent.

The prominence measure records visibility rather than approval, and a politician can register strongly for reasons that do not help them. But an opposition backbencher outpolling her own party leader by eleven points is a result worth noting.

What people actually liked

Asked to pick the government's most favoured achievement of the month, 57.60 percent chose the Thais Helping Thais Plus relief programme. Flood relief and assistance took 27.68 percent and a higher State Welfare Card allowance 14.72 percent.

Pinyo's reading was that the popularity of the relief scheme had not offset poor assessments of goods prices, the cost of living and the wider economy — a single well-received handout against a broadly negative economic verdict.

On the opposition side, scrutiny of government budget spending was the most favoured activity at 39.74 percent, followed by follow-up on the alleged Senate election fraud case at 32.15 percent and scrutiny of alleged corruption in local-government examinations at 28.11 percent.

All three are oversight functions. None involves proposing anything. The public is rewarding the opposition for auditing rather than for governing in waiting, which is a narrower mandate than the headline score suggests.

What the number does not measure

A monthly confidence index is a sentiment instrument, not a prediction. It does not measure voting intention, it does not survey by constituency, and a movement of 0.08 between months sits within the range where methodology and news cycle explain as much as public opinion does.

What it does track usefully is direction. On this reading, the direction across almost every function of the Thai state in August was down.

What to watch

Whether September reverses or continues. One month is noise; a second consecutive fall across most indicators is a trend, and the next reading lands at the end of September.

Whether the anti-corruption score moves after the Election Commission's ruling. The commission is expected to decide this month on a case involving 229 people over the 2024 Senate election. Follow-up on that case was already among the opposition's most favoured activities, and anti-corruption sentiment is near the bottom of this index. The two are likely to interact.

Whether opposition prominence converts into anything. Leading a visibility measure is not the same as leading a voting-intention poll, and this survey does not attempt the latter. Whether the gap between the two closes is the question that matters for the next election.